The political landscape in Argentina has been shaken up by the surprising victory of far-right libertarian candidate Javier Milei in the country's primary elections.[0] With just over 30% of the vote, Milei defeated candidates from both the centre-right and ruling centre-left coalitions, signaling a potential shift in the country's economic and foreign policies.[0]
Milei's strong performance in the primary elections is expected to increase financial volatility in Argentina in the coming weeks.[1] This volatility could deter investment and raise the risk of a panic-induced bank run.[1] As an anti-establishment candidate, Milei has promised to overhaul Argentina's economic and political systems, which has resonated with voters who are disillusioned with the leftist-populist tide that has swept Latin America in recent years.
Argentina's notoriously unreliable polls had predicted that the centre-right coalition, Together for Change, would secure the most votes.[2] However, Milei's unexpected victory disrupted these predictions and highlighted growing public disenchantment with the country's political establishment. His win also marks a significant shift in Argentine politics, as Milei received more votes than any other candidate, surpassing both the ruling party and the centre-right coalition.[3]
Milei's rise to prominence has been fueled by his attacks on other politicians and his charismatic personality. Before entering politics, Milei worked as a consultant and economics professor.[2] His controversial beliefs, such as legalizing the sale of human organs and denying climate change, have garnered attention. He has also gained a reputation for his unconventional style, including his rock performances at rallies and his refusal to brush his hair.
The victory of Milei reflects the frustration of many Argentines with their country's chronic economic dysfunction.[2] Argentina currently faces annual inflation of 116%, one of the highest rates in the world.[4] Crushing taxes and capital controls have led to a thriving black market for dollars, further exacerbating the economic crisis. Milei's message of reducing government spending, privatizing public companies, and implementing a more market-oriented approach to the economy resonates with those who believe that the government is incapable of managing the country's finances effectively.
While Milei's victory in the primary elections has positioned him as the frontrunner for the upcoming general election in October, the road to the presidency remains uncertain. It is unclear how many more voters Milei will be able to attract, and his rivals may attempt to capitalize on his controversial beliefs and policy proposals.[2] If no candidate receives at least 45% of the votes or 40% with a ten-point margin over the runner-up, a run-off election will be held in November.[2]
Milei's unexpected rise to prominence and his promise of radical change have captured the attention of both domestic and international observers.[0] Some have drawn comparisons between Milei and former US President Donald Trump, noting their similar anti-establishment messages and charismatic styles. As Argentina prepares for the general election in October, all eyes will be on Milei as he attempts to navigate the complex political landscape and potentially reshape the country's future.
0. “Argentine far-right outsider posts shock win in primary election” The Japan Times, 14 Aug. 2023, https://www.japantimes.co.jp/world/2023/08/14/politics/argentina-primary-vote/
1. “A Far-Right Candidate Takes the Lead in Argentina's Presidential Race” Stratfor Worldview, 14 Aug. 2023, https://worldview.stratfor.com/article/far-right-candidate-takes-lead-argentinas-presidential-race
2. “Argentina could get its first libertarian president” The Economist, 14 Aug. 2023, https://www.economist.com/the-americas/2023/08/14/argentina-could-get-its-first-libertarian-president
3. “Trump fan’s win in Argentina’s primaries is latest blow to Latin America’s left | Opinion” Miami Herald, 14 Aug. 2023, https://www.miamiherald.com/news/local/news-columns-blogs/andres-oppenheimer/article278237918.html
4. “Argentina braces for more economic upheaval after a major political shakeup” WKAR, 15 Aug. 2023, https://www.wkar.org/2023-08-15/argentina-braces-for-more-economic-upheaval-after-a-major-political-shakeup
